Pullout? Bush and the Rhythm Method

In Today's Washington Post:

In Iraq, No Clear Finish Line

The Bush administration has sent seemingly conflicting signals in recent days over the duration of the U.S. deployment to Iraq, openly discussing contingency plans to withdraw as many as 30,000 of 138,000 troops by spring, then cautioning against expectations of any early pullout. Finally yesterday, President Bush dismissed talk of a drawdown as just "speculation and rumors" and warned against "withdrawing before the mission is complete."

The shifting scenarios reflect the uncertain nature of the mission and the ambiguity of what would constitute its successful completion. For all the clarity of Bush's vow to stay not one day longer than needed, the muddled reality is that no one can say exactly when that will be.

Pullout Schmullout. This administration has no intention of ending our military occupation of Iraq. That we have constructed there huge (and hugely expensive) military bases is evidence enough of our true intentions. We will have a military presence in country -- enough of a presence to intimidate the locals into seeing things our way -- forever if the neocons have their way. And as long as Bush is in office they will have their way.

The question Bush's handlers are asking themselves is how to create the impression of a pullout. In other words, how many troops do we need to remove to convince the American public that we are leaving -- that Iraq is over -- and thereby shift its attention elsewhere in time for the midterm elections? In other words this is all politics driven. It's about public relations in this country -- "winning the minds" of the American people by changing the lead. It's all Karl Rove stuff. Turd Blossom tactics.

Later in the above-cited article retired General Barry McCaffrey is quoted as saying that, although the war in Iraq is winnable, "It's a race against time because by the end of this coming summer we can no longer sustain the presence we have now." Nonethless, McCaffery's considered opinion is that Bush strategy in Iraq still has an "80% chance of success." Ironic, I thought, that the ex-Drug Czar, erstwhile Supreme Commander in another obviously unwinnable war, is asked to comment on our chances of winning this one. Ought to change his name to Jude, the patron saint of hopeless causes.